by WonkoKevin
This would be a lot cooler with a sound effect, but you get the picture.
OTOH, check out how Huckabee has been able to maintain his Value Voter + Iowa poll bounce. Looks like he’s got some staying power.
by WonkoKevin
If Al Gore were to enter the presidential race, who would it hurt the most? The conventional think he’d bite into Clinton’s lead. That may happen down the road, but there’s slim chance of it happening out of the gate. Wonks discuss the possible impact to Obama and Edwards–there’s only room for one not-Hillary candidate they reason. Maybe, but Obama and Edwards supporters really like them a lot. If they were looking for an alternative, the could simply switch sides with each other. It’s more likely that Gore (hypothetically) comes into the race in the number four spot, so who does that hurt the most? The candidates vying for #4: Bill Richardson and Joe Biden. Wonkosphere numbers bear this hypothesis out. As Gore’s buzz share has increased in the last three days, it’s had no effect on the buzz share of Clinton, Obama, or Edwards; but it’s directly eaten into Richardson’s and Biden’s buzz share.
Update from CNN: “A source involved in Gore’s past political runs told CNN that he definitely has the ambition to use the peace prize as a springboard to run for president. But he will not run, because he won’t take on the political machine assembled by Sen. Hillary Clinton, said the source. If the senator from New York had faltered at all, Gore would take a serious look at entering the race, the source said. But Gore has calculated that Clinton is unstoppable, according to the source.”
by WonkoKevin
Al Gore watch… Friday is Nobel Peace Prize announcement. Will he or won’t he? Gore’s Wonkosphere buzz share is slightly up, but nothing too outrageous. Stay tuned.
by WonkoKevin
So, the first basic question is: Will Al Gore enter the race? Everyone points to a two-week window. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced October 12, a filing dates for the early primary states are rapidly approaching, so if he is going to jump, it will be within the next three weeks, and perhaps at the announcement ceremony itself, or immediately thereafter. The second question is: Would it make a difference?
by WonkoKevin
A few days ago I blogged about a piece by Open Left entitled “Why National Polls Don’t Matter (A History)”. We can use the same reasoning to come to the following conclusion: Pre-Iowa, there’s always room for a serious fourth contender. Interestingly, the Democrat that appears best to take that fourth seat is Al Gore.
by WonkoKevin
Oh man I love the horserace. The Republican race is so wide-open, anybody could surprise. Rudy, Fred, or Mitt–sure, no problem. Mike and John looked poised for a good stretch run. Do I hear whispers of RonMo? Duncan, Tom, and Sam, watchout for Newt. I even hear Condi has been freeing up her schedule…
by WonkoKevin
Well, I guess Fred Thompson’s honeymoon is over. Yesterday in Wonkoblog I talked about how the tone of Thompson’s buzz has gone steadily down since the day after his formal candidacy annoucement. Today Wonkosphere shows that Thompson’s buzz share dropped below 10% for this first time in a week. And the mud keeps coming.
When all is said and done, perhaps the political lesson of 2008 campaign will be there’s danger in starting too early. While the declared candidates suffer early burnout and go broke, The Undeclareds rest on the bench waiting for the fourth quarter–rested, untainted, and ready to roll.
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