by WonkoKevin

Barack Obama won decisively yesterday in Washington, Nebraska, and Loiusiana, inching close to Clinton in total delegates at around 1100 (this includes estimates of super-delegate preferences).  Clinton supporters have stated that they don’t expect to do very well in the upcoming contests in Virginia, D.C., Maryland, Wisconsin, and Hawaii.  A string of victories, perhaps really big victories, by Obama could create the kind of momentum Obama needs to win, or stay close, in the March 4 contests of Ohio and Texas.  This means that Clinton has perhaps only one chance to stop a February sweep–the Maine caucus today. From The Politicker:

That creates the possibility of five more blowout wins for Obama — on top of the three he earned tonight — before the race returns to Hillary-friendly turf. It creates an opportunity for Obama to generate the perception of major progress towards the nomination, which could potentially affect the candidates’ standing in Ohio and Texas — sort of the way Rudy Giuliani’s long, dark early and mid-January undermined his standing in Florida.

This makes tomorrow’s Maine caucuses even more important for Clinton. She has targeted the state aggressively, dispatching both her husband and her daughter to campaign for her and making a swing herself this weekend. She has the backing of the state’s Democratic governor and has fared well in the Northeast and New England so far this year. Maine is a winnable state for her — and a victory would allow her to avoid a month-long dry-spell between Super Tuesday and March 4.

Beyond that, her campaign’s survival strategy for the rest of February will involve continuing to tamp down expectations — they put out the word several days ago that they don’t expect to win before March 4, potentially amplifying the value of a Maine (or even Virginia) victory — and Hillary Clinton herself has been downplaying Obama’s successes in caucuses states like Nebraska and Washington, suggesting that the caucus participation demands a time commitment that many working-class voters can’t afford to make.

In fairness, even if she does strike out for the rest of this month, it probably won’t be nearly as catastrophic for Hillary as Giuliani’s miserable early state showing was.

There is a school of thought that the Democratic race has essentially been divided into two immovable camps. Hillary has women, older voters, working-class whites and Hispanics, while Obama’s coalition includes blacks, younger voters, affluent and educated whites, and political independents. Winning states where his coalition is stronger, under this theory, won’t produce any meaningful momentum for Obama in states where Clinton’s coalition makes her the favorite. Under this logic, the race is doomed to wrap up after Puerto Rico in early June in something close to a deadlock, with the 796 superdelegates making the difference.

But Obama won big tonight. And he will probably win big many more times before March 4. And if he wins on Tuesday, he will be able to boast of winning twice as many contests as his opponent. To the extent momentum will be a factor in Texas and Ohio, Obama will have it on his side.

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This entry was posted on Sunday, February 10th, 2008 at 6:39 am and is filed under Clinton, Obama. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.