by WonkoKevin

We have consulted our Wonkosphere data base and looked at the buzz share trends, we have read the learned words of our peers, we have checked our gut instinct, and we have even bought a pair of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama playing cards so we could read the future.  We are ready to bring you our predictions for the Iowa Democratic primary.  We have identified four scenarios, and will discuss from most likely to least likely.  Each scenario assumes that the 4th+ place finishers take a collective 10%, thus there is 90% to split between Clinton, Edwards, and Obama.

Scenario 1, Probability = 0.40

Edwards, 40

Clinton, 25

Obama, 25

This looks to me the most likely from Wonkosphere data.  Edwards mauls them in the rural areas of Iowa.  Obama’s youth never shows, and unethusiastic Clinton supporters stay at home on a cold Iowa night.  New Hampshire instantly becomes a dead heat.

Scenario 2, Probability = 0.30

Obama, 40

Edwards, 30

Clinton, 20

Obama rolls on big momemtum and beats Edwards in an “Anyone But Clinton” scenario.  Sets up a possible run-of-the-table by Obama, although it is more likely that Clinton would move, perhaps successfully, to a Feb 5 strategy (see: Rudy Giuliani).  Tough to see Edwards moving up in New Hampshire with this result.

Scenario 3, Probability = 0.20

Clinton, 30

Edwards, 30

Obama, 30

Oh how I would love to see this one!  I think the end effect of this is much the same as scenario 1, it looks like a win for Edwards.

Scenario 4, Probability = 0.10

Clinton, 40

Obama, 35

Edwards, 15

Instantly moves this to a two person race, with do-or-die in New Hampshire for Obama.

I saw two interesting things today that made me wonder about Clinton’s volatility.  On Hardball, a Democratic representative speaking “for” the Clinton campaign made a point of saying that he had perhaps gone a bit too far in his own remarks about Obama, and that no matter who was the candidate, they were better than the Republican choices.  Sounded like hedging to me.  Also today we learned that Bill Richardson, who has been seemingly kissing up to Clinton for assumed future cabinet considerations, complained to the NYT that Clinton was flip-flopping on removing combat troops from Iraq.  Richardson seems unlikely to come out of Iowa alive, so why would he go after Clinton now?  Hmm, rather curious. 

This entry was posted on Friday, December 21st, 2007 at 4:38 pm and is filed under Horse race, Edwards, Clinton, Obama. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.