Clinton choice solid for 32%
by WonkoKevin
There’s a new USA Today-Gallup poll which shows Hillary Clinton getting 50% from Democrats likely to vote, the first time she has been over the century mark. Barack Obama had his second lowest reading at 21%, and John Edwards remained at 13%. There’s some good fave/unfave/”vote enthusiastically for” data in there that I decided to number crunch… Under reasonable assumptions, Clinton can count on a likely unshakable base of 32%, compared to Obama’s 12% and Edward’s 5%. That leaves 50% up for grabs still. If we assume that this will break relative to the candidate’s unfavorable and “stay at home” ratings, we might get the remaining Dems to break 3:4:4 for Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. This would still leave Clinton leading Obama 48% to 30%. If we go to the extreme and assume Obama or Edwards’ supporters dump their candidate in favor of the other, and the undecided break 1:4 for Clinton and Obama/Edwards, Obama can get ahead of Clinton (52% to 42%), and Edwards can pull out a slight lead (45% to 42%).
Can Obama attack Edwards and get Edwards’ supporters to shift, or visa versa? Unlikely pre-Iowa. It seems to come down to whether Edwards can finish in first in Iowa, which will change MSM attention, or Obama can come up with a better-than-expected NH outcome.
