So if one looks optimistically at state-level polling numbers–by optimistic, I mean from the standpoint of wanting to see a long, drawn-out horse race–which race is more likely to be NOT decided by Feb 5?

I examined the latest poll numbers published at Real Clear Politics, and I either took the obvious front-runner, or if the numbers were close enough, took the candidate that made the race more interesting.  This is obviously totally back-of-the-envelope, and does not take into account anything that might happen between now and then, and ignores the dynamics of a better or worse-than-expeceted finish in IA, NH, SC, or NV.

Here’s where we could end up after Feb 5…

Democrats:

Clinton–AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, DE, FL (will it count?), GA, MO, NJ, NV, NY, TN, UT, WV

Obama–CT, IL, MI, NH, SC

Edwards–IA, OK

Republicans:

Giuliani–CA, CO, CT, FL, IL, NJ, NM, NY, OK

Thompson–AL, GA, MI, MO, TN

Romney–IA, NH, NV, UT

McCain–AZ, SC, WV

Huckabee–AR

At face value, the Republicans look to have a much better chance of having a real horse race.  Romney could conceivably win 3 of the first 4 votes and still have an uphill battle.  Thompson is looking at the middle portion of the country for momentum, and Giuliani, like Clinton, depends on the big influence of CA, FL, and NY.  Any conflict with Florida’s delegates because of timing will hurt Clinton and Giuliani. 

McCain?  Well, according to USA Election Polls, if delegates were approportion to vote tallies, McCain would be in second place in terms of the amount of delegates existing state level support would bring. 

This entry was posted on Sunday, August 26th, 2007 at 8:47 am and is filed under Horse race. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.